Monday, March 8, 2010

Iowa High School State Tournament: Class 1A Predictions

It's March and that means it's time for the madness to begin. This week, teams and fans from all over the state of Iowa will travel to Des Moines to play for a chance at winning a state championship. All eyes will be on Wells Fargo arena to see what players step up on the big stage... and who might wilt under the pressure of the big lights. What teams will rise to the challenge, and who cracks under the pressure? One thing is for certain, it will be a lot of fun watching things unfold.

Here's a look at the Class 1A match-ups and our predictions:

Opening Round:

#1 NU High (24-1) vs. #8 Coon Rapids-Bayard (16-9)

NU High is becoming a fixture at the State tournament. They placed third in 2005, won the Class 1A Championship in 2008, and got second in 2009. This year's team at NU High, led by seniors Eddie Diemer (14 ppg on 60% shooting. 8.5 rebounds), Tanner Cooke (11.4 ppg, 64 threes on the year), and junior Kyle Denning (11.6 ppg, 118 assists), all played a significant role in last year's runner-up finish, and they have some unfinished business in Des Moines. Coon Rapids-Bayard is a relative newcomer to the State tournament, and are led by junior Jacob Esdohr (14.5 ppg).

Our pick: NU High's experience playing at Wells Fargo is a big advantage... and their talent is top-notch, too. We like them running away in this one.

#4 Rock Valley (23-2) vs. #5 St. Albert (18-4)

This is the most intriguing first-round matchup in Class 1A: two teams that played at the State Tournament last season, who both play a tough non-conference schedule and are battle-tested. Rock Valley won the Class 1A State Championship last season and are led by last year's all tournament post players Jordan Dykstra (23.9 ppg and 11.7 rpg) and Marcus Heemstra (19.9 ppg and 9.4 rpg). The two future South Dakota State Jackrabbits would like nothing better than to finish on top again this year. St. Albert made it to the Class 2A State tournament last year, but have moved "down" a classification to 1A this season. They are led by senior Jake Waters (14.5 ppg).

Our pick: Rock Valley's "twin towers" inside are a tough matchup for anyone... but at the Class 1A level, that kind of size is unheard of. Their inside presence wins this one, but it will be a close one... one of the best first-round games all week.

#2 Lynnville-Sully (24-1) vs. #7 Bishop Garrigan (18-7)

Lynville-Sully is coming off a great season, and are led by post player Logan Vos (7.7 ppg and 10.1 rpg) and sophomore guard Chase Cullen (13.7 ppg, 39 threes). Lynville-Sully has excellent size with Vos and senior Corey Gifford, and have a very balanced offensive game with 6 players who average at least 7 ppg or more. Bishop Garrigan, on the other hand, will look to get a lot of production out of senior guard Brandon Doughan (20.1 ppg, 65 threes). Doughan is a do-everything player for Bishop Garrigan, and also leads them in rebounds, steals, and blocks.

Our pick: Lynnville-Sully hasn't been tested much this year, but their size and offensive firepower will win out in this one. We expect Doughan to create a lot of noise for himself with a great game, but it will be too little, too late.

#3 Ankeny Christian Academy (24-1) vs. #6 Calamus-Wheatland (20-5)

The fans at Wells Fargo Arena will get to see two high-scoring players go head-to-head in this one! Ankeny Christian is led by junior guard Tim Olejniczak, who averaged 22 ppg this season, making 73 three pointers, and dishing out 159 assists (third in the state for all classes). Calamus-Wheatland counters with senior Ryan Powers, who also averaged 22 ppg, tossed 127 assists, had 62 steals, and added 7.1 rebounds per game.

Our pick: Calamus Wheatland will pill off the upset in this one. Olejniczak will do all he can to prevent it, but we think senior Powers isn't ready for his outstanding high school career to end just yet.

Semi-Finals:

NU High vs. Rock Valley: This is the rematch of the 2009 1A final, where Rock Valley came out on top 64-42. This time around, we like NU High to pull out the win, although it will be a lot closer than last year. Regardless of who wins this one, we think the winner of this game will go on to win the championship. If you're looking for a great game to attend this week in Des Moines, this one could be in.

Lynnville-Sully vs. Calamus Wheatland: We think Lynville-Sully's firepower and big men inside will give them the upper hand in this matchup, although Powers might score 30ppg this week, keeping Calamus Wheatland in the game until the end.

Finals:

NU High vs. Lynnville-Sully: Lynnville-Sully's made a great run with a talented cast this year, but NU High will be just too much for them in the final. Diemers, Cooke, and Denning seem to be on a mission this season, and it will end up with their second State Title in three years.

Class 1A All-Tournament Team:

Eddie Diemer (Captain, NU High), Tanner Cooke (NU High), Chase Cullen (Lynnville-Sully) Ryan Powers (Calamus Wheatland), Marcus Heemstra (Rock Valley), and Jordan Dykstra (Rock Valley)

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